It throws out a dud which may have been earned over a bad surface or when a horse was trying a new distance or race class for the first time.Īverage best 2 of Last 3 speed handicapping factor But what factor is the most predictive? We have found that taking the best 2 speed figures from a horse's last 3 races and averaging those 2 numbers is the best indication of speed. Speed handicapping factors are among the most predictive because (and this will shock nobody) fast horses win races. On average, 55% of the time, a horse that ranks in the top 3 for average earnings per start will win the race. You can see from the data above that in an average race, the horse with the highest average earnings per start wins approximately 22% of the time. In Betmix you can refine that by looking at Avg earnings at today's distance, surface, track, etc.Īverage Lifetime Earnings handicapping factor If a horse has earned $100,000 in his career and run in 10 races then the AVG Lifetime earnings would be $10,000. There are several earnings factors, but we will take a look at Average Lifetime Earnings which is the simply taking the total earnings for the horse and dividing by the number of races it has run. More than 70% of the time, the winner of the race is going to come from one of the top 3 choices. A little more than one third of the time the post time favorite wins the race. Overall - averaging thousands of races - the public generally gets the order right. What we all know, and the data proves, is that favorites win more often than 2nd choices, and that 2nd choices win more often than 3rd choices, etc. How often does the favorite win a horse race? This is an obvious factor to many people and you would certainly expect that the horse with the lowest odds wins the most races. Post Time odds are a factor, and although we do not include that in Betmix, it is something that you will certainly be aware of when betting a race. However, they are not specific to any race, track or surface type. These numbers are accurate, and based on several thousand races. We will take a look at a few of them here and show you how important they are when looking at a large sample of races. To handicap a race with accuracy, you have to consider several factors and then determine how important each of those factors should be in your overall decision. It is an overall number and does not take into consideration the track or surface where the number was earned. If he has run 20 times, and the best number he ever earned was 88, then that is his best lifetime number. That factor is easy to understand, it is the best speed number that a horse earned during his career. The factors are numeric, and as an example consider BEST LIFETIME SPEED NUMBER. A list of the handicapping factors used in Betmix can be found here. But we will talk about a few of them here to help you understand how you might want to weigh them in your mixes.įirst of all, a handicapping factor is a data element that is used to describe how a horse ran in previous races. Unfortunately there is not an answer that applies to every race, surface, track or condition. Currently, we have over 40 handicapping factors available in Betmix and the obvious question most people have when they first start is "What is the most important handicapping factor?"